Where will you be in 2020 and what will your life look like? Such a question seems almost impossible to answer, especially when looking at the speed and acceleration of innovation throughout the last decade. In the beginning of 2008, for example, nobody really knew about mobile apps. At best, the bulk of consumers knew about downloadable “programmes” for mobile phones, most of which were games. Just two years later apps seem to be everywhere, not only for the iPhone but as a topic in blogs, among entrepreneurs and even mainstream media.

Despite the difficulty of making sophisticated predictions about the future, Rudy De Waele, mobile expert, co-founder of dotopen and blogger at m-trends.org put together an impressive list of people to write down their trends for the coming decade.

The aggregated list is quite extensive, so here goes our short-list of trends we find most important in general and with reference to app developers and mobile publishers. Some of the following are freely interpreted and commented – hopefully they still display the intended meaning:

• We’re all value creators – the notation here is that value creation and exchange will be democratized, collaboration and co-creation in real time become vital as we move forward to the next billion of Internet users
• App businesses – by 2011/2012 we will see $100m/yr businesses built on apps
• App Stores will open up – less restrictions, more user/developer control.
• Powerful mobile devices will cost less – dramatically increasing the number of people with access to the Internet. Also, data plans will become cheaper.
• More than 50% of the word’s households will carry a mobile device – that’s roughly 3 billion. Just imagine that.
• The mobile browser becomes the main applications platform – no more native apps? We are not so sure about that.
• Mobile phones as remotes – TVs, cars, everything.
• Mobile Gaming – browser gaming (including mobile) pretty much replaces the current console market in the western world.
• Things and services – the connection between online services and physical devices will keep increasing. This will cause a need for new applications that help us make use of all our personal data. Think Foursquare or CitySourced as early examples of this.
• Data and things – things will generate more data traffic than the average human.
• Daily data – already, the Internet knows a lot about us. This will dramatically increase with the mobile wave. As we learn to „create and manipulate“ this data, we will learn to value personal information that stays personal.
• Privacy and “always-on” backlash or “the value of being offline” – with increased personal data and visibility of our everyday activities, privacy will be a big issue and a challenge for new services to handle and solves these. Furthermore, as a reaction to always being connected, people will pay for the ability to be offline – going ’dark’ and to disconnect will become a USP for certain products and services.
• Mobile Advertising and “ContVertising”– Advertisers will massively convert to mobile. New means of ad-targeting consumers (consumer interests) will lead to an increased relevance of consumer marketing – the combination of very high relevance and paid ads will be perceived as content rather than an intrusion. The improved possibilities will lead advertisers to move one third of their budgets to mobile. As part of this, the bulk of brands will use apps to increase brand awareness.
• Augmented reality, live information based on context and NFC – this was mentioned multiple times, though without many details to it. Bottom line: many products and services will make use of AR, it will be adding value to products and services and will be (a value proposition in) a big market. Receiving information based on live information of one’s environment and context will be possible and part of our every day life. Near Field Communication (NFC) will take off.
• Indoor smartness – intelligent environments and indoor positioning. This corresponds to the mentioned AR-Services, contextual relevance and NFC.
• Mobile payment and money transfer beyond mobile banking – pay everything with your mobile device (we should stop calling it a mobile phone, as if that were its main purpose or use case). No more need for a wallet.
• Mobile Commerce – will take off. In our opinion this is strongly connected to receiving contextually relevant information and connecting online with actual things.

 
If you find the time, go check out entire presentation, there are a lot more points in it that are worth a thought and we haven’t mentioned here.

The new AdMob Mobile Metrics Report for November is out and it has some interesting metrics in it, especially because it looks at the trends of the past year 2009. It is always a little biased in that it only takes AdMob’s own publisher network into account, but the scale of their network gives the report more than just a little representability.

Some of the major developments were the increase of smartphones regarding share of mobile web and app traffic (up 48% from 30% last year) and the tripled amount of requests via Wifi. Another interesting fact is that traffic regarding Android devices seems to spread almost equally between different devices as they keep adding to the number of Android devices in the market. In our opinion this substantiates the assumption that not one Android device will be able to compete with the iPhone, but rather a whole array of different handsets that will enter the market.

What’s most interesting about it is how the amount of iPhone and iPod touch users is divided between countries and how this has developed throughout the last year. 50% of all iPhone and iPod touch users in the AdMob network now come from the U.S., while the other half seems to have evolved into a “country long-tail”, with the U.K. at 8%, France at 6% and Germany as well as Canada at 4% (17% are made up by countries with a share below 1%). Especially Japan, France, Australia, China and Germany have seen a massive user growth, with Japan at more than 300% increase and the others mentioned close to 300% or above 200%. And (we think) we are only at the beginning of the mobile “revolution”. Great times ahead – Android will probably take a similar route in terms of distribuion by country.

Find the entire report here – it’s well worth your while, we think. As weekend reading you should also take a look at the Morgan Stanley “Mobile Internet Report” though for this one, you should really bring some time.

We know, we should do a list of our own for trends we see for 2010 with regard to mobile and app. But once a while we come across an interesting piece of content that seems to sum up many trends pretty well – although the specific numbers somewhat differ from other studies. Anyway, this one is by Mobile Marketer – here is a short recap of what we find most noteworthy in it:

• The mobile web is growing – that is a given, but the numbers are quite interesting: More than 100 million unique users in the U.S. – mobile will most probably reach 50% of all wired Web users in 2010
• Web and app – looks like it’s not web vs. app: advertisers will invest in mobile websites as well as apps in 2010. While in 2009 many brand campaigns sent their users to mobile websites, about 35-40 percent of campaigns will now direct their users to an app.
• M-commerce and retail – interesting stats: in a Deloitte study, 55 percent of participants said they will use their mobile device to find specific stores, while 45 will research prices, 40 percent will find out about product specifics and 32 percent will search for coupons and discounts. Rather sounds like mobile search, offline retail.
• All against Apple – Android and RIM are on the rise. No more to add from our side.
• Location, location, location! – location itself is nothing new, but the data mining and usage of this data to target specific customers with marketing will likely increase. An interesting angle – time to start asking your user for his or her whereabouts?
• Search – yes, mobile search. This so far seems to be a completely unutilized field, with only few players in the market. But just like online, mobile search might be your future traffic driver. So stay with it.

 
There are some more interesting trends and numbers in the article (you can find it here), though many of them refer to mobile marketing and data from Millennial Media, so it might be slightly biased.

Are you using special events and dates, such as holidays, to promote your app in a certain way? If not, you should probably start doing so. This article by FierceMobile refers to statistics that claim that compared to last year the traffic to the Apple US-App Store increased by 57 percent during Thanksgiving week. For the week compared to the first three of November, traffic growth was at 43 percent. Also interesting: app usage during Black Friday was up by 59 percent. Why does this happen?

Well, there could be many reasons, but the most logical explanation is probably people (iPhone owners) simply having more time for using the device and browsing through the App Store. Another one could be special offers and topic-related apps. The term “special offer” mostly refers to an app purchase price drop for a certain period of time. To us this makes a lot of sense in order to push sales in the short run without generally confusing the user with an unusual pricing move.

Another way of promoting apps during certain times appears to be the combination of a special offer and a special website, set-up to offer (link to) different apps. Of course, developers have to “join forces” to make this interesting for the user. A German example of this is the website www.appsforsale.de, which offered different apps around the Easter time and is now up with a new design and a Christmas app-calendar. Another (more international) example of this is appventcalendar.com. We know, for example, that the Easter-sale on appsforsale did have an effect on app sales for the participating developers. We are not sure, if this effect actually made up for the price drop that every developer had to show in order to take part. But, as a bottom line, you definitely shouldn’t miss trying things like this out.

If you know more of these kinds of sales-initiatives, let us know. Also, it would be interesting to hear what you experience has been so far. Let us know in the comments or contact us directly.

We wanted to pick up a topic which we haven’t talked about at all until now, but is one that is of relevance to us when thinking about extending our service in the future: developing for multiple platforms / operating systems.

We know that a lot of you developers have come from developing for another (mobile) platform and there are many (gaming) companies out there who have completely moved their focus from developing for multiple platforms (mostly Symbian) to the iPhone / iPod Touch. So to us, it is a little weird even raising this question. The topic then is probably not whether to stop developing for one platform in favor of another but rather to develop for Android and/or Blackberry (or any other) additionally.

Of course, this decision can only have one basis: sales to be made from selling apps for the platform, thus sales potential, right? However, potential sales to be made or potential customers to reach are in most cases never the same as actual sales or people reached.  In other words, the potential market to reach should not be mistaken with a 100% probability of actually reaching it. The competitive landscape is a big factor when considering for which platform to develop. Take for example the recent launch of Sidebar, which debuted for Android and not for the iPhone. Why? Well, probably not because of the absolute sales/download potential (as of now), but rather because of the higher probability of actually generating a satisfactory amount of sales.

In our mind, there is no doubt that 2010 will be the year of Android, with a lot of devices hitting the market and also a lot more apps coming out. Although, so far, no device has really been able to compete with the iPhone, the combination of the sheer amount of different smartphones running on Android and the increased quality of these devices, in our opinion, will make the difference. But of course, the more this progresses the harder the competitive environment and gaining visibility will get. So in the mid-term, choosing one platform over the other might be a zero sum game. We know for sure that this question will answer itself within the next few years. But for the here and now, this is an important decision to be made by any app developer. What do you think?

These are again some thoughts on monetization strategies for apps. As we all know, monetizing an app (or the app development work) is key, not only to creating a business, but also for being able to actually spend some money on customer acquisition.

We talked to a developer recently, who is still in the process of finding out how he should further earn money with the acquired customers. Not only for the purpose of making more money, but also as a means of rewarding his ongoing efforts and work that went into the app over time. The app is a navigation product and is not something that can easily be monetized by using In-App Purchase for additional services. At the same time, the app is a product that, once bought, is used on a regular basis and provides a utility for the long term. For the developer this means that it does not only take constant updates and improvements on the app itself, it also takes a fair amount of customer service and communication with the user base. Up until now the users have received all the updates for free or, let’s say, as included in the initial purchase price.

The developer is now thinking about releasing a major new version of the app and is more or less unsure whether to charge for it or just give it away for free. From his point of view, asking for a new purchase is justified as it rewards a. an ongoing effort and b. though it will basically still be the same product it will be much more useful and different in many ways from the original app.

Tweetie is a very good example of charging for upgrades and, in our opinion, it seemed justified.  However, charging for the new version of Tweetie caused a lot of discussion and negative remarks from many sides. What do you think is the right decision? After all, app developers are at the mercy of the customers that buy their products, are they not?

This is a little off topic as it concerns the ‘product’ rather than the app marketing aspects of building and selling mobile apps – yes, we are talking about augmented reality. We just came across this article, which states that, according to Juniper, in 2014 augmented reality services will be a 732 Million US-Dollar market. Impressive, although we’ll have to wait through 2010, in which augmented reality services are projected to reach a tiny 2 million in market size (would be great for one single company).

The size of the market implies, as also stated on this blog before, that we are really just at the beginning of a huge mobile wave. Maybe it shouldn’t even be called mobile. Mobile is what enables these augmented reality services just like the internet and location do with mobile services we are seing right now. But really, augmented reality takes mobile a step further. It adds a digital component to an individual’s reality, thus not only taking the immedeate reality (location, surroundings) into account but actually changing the way individuals perceive their environment – at least this is the vision.

In the end, this might not be that much off topic: the article also mentions the great possibilities for brand and retail marketing and the potential to charge higher CPMs, CPCs and the like due to the increased relevance of any given advertisement. So we will probably see some augmented reality component be added to the majority of apps, just as is the case with location right now. Bottom line, although it will take time, this is a huge chance for app (traffic) monetization. So to those of you relying on advertising for app monetisation: hang in there, we’re on the way up

The Apple App Store is awesome. It has the advantage of reaching millions of users around the world without ever really having to internationalize your app business. Practically, you do not even need to leave your home – all you have to do is check the boxes for the different countries when uploading your app. Additionally, you can use English for the description text of every country’s app detail page. The same goes for the language you use within in your app. In fact, for app developers outside of the U.S. this is as exciting as for those within the U.S. Those not from the United States are able to reach a huge market (the biggest for iPhone apps) and for U.S.-developers, it’s a pretty big upside to potentially reach a lot more customers than “just” the one in the own domestic market.

We just recently talked to a smaller developer from Germany (“smaller” meaning he has three apps on the App Store and his “app endeavors” are still at an early stage), who is working on his app projects part-time, though considering to go full-time soon. This developer started with an app which he put up on the App Store in German and, of course, English – sales were doing fine at 79 and 99 Cents respectively. Obviously, this developer didn’t have a lot of budget to spend on anything, but he decided use some of his money for a translation service (no, not Google Translator – this is the translation service he used) to have the detail page of the app translated into 5 European languages. According to him, after adding the translations of the product descriptions to his detail page, sales went up immediately and also (as an effect of that) his app went up in the rankings, which then resulted in even more sales. Of course, he is now dealing with more “local” support requests, which is quite a challenge, but in general, this small effort really helped him get his app business off the ground.

So today, this is the story we wanted to share with you, the moral of which you may find by reading the headline. If you have any similar stories of the like – we would love to hear them!

That’s if you were wondering why the top grossing apps at any point in time appear to be either games or navigation. Seems pretty straightforward: navigation is the “one” product people seem to be spending on the most per purchase and games are simply the most addictive in terms of usage and, in our opinion, offer the most logical ways for integration of in-app purchase – virtual goods, extra levels and the like. “Yes, some more ammo, please, I’m in the middle of a battle here!” refers to a more probable use case then “yes, some more news for 1,99 please, I need them now and have no time to look them up on the (mobile) internet”. But we are digressing.

We just came across this article, basically suggesting two things:

1. Apple is looking for developers for an in-house app games product line
2. Apple might be embarassed about the iPhone being about gaming that much

 
Of course, the first statement contradicts the latter in some ways. So what could this move by Apple imply?

Businesswise, it seems to be a pretty logical step to make the iPhone an ever improving gaming device, as explained before. But we all know that the device already is so much more. Smart business models and integration of monetization as well as increasing customer life time value are possible in every kind of category for every type of app.

The only question is: what is Apple going to focus on? It is no secret that app developers heavily rely on Apple regarding technical innovation, app approval and, for that matter, on promotion as well. Making the device and the App Store more and more about one thing or topic doesn’t seem be a smart move – but of course, we’re judging from the outside. What’s your take? Are games going to increasingly overtake the App Store in terms of visibility? Is Apple taking every other developer for granted?

Lately, there have been a lot of examples of brands or let’s call them “bigger corporate entities” launching an iPhone app to increase their brand recognition and basically just use the Apple App Store as a marketing channel. The North Face, Lufthansa or Coca-Cola are just a few examples of this. There certainly is no general answer as to whether this makes sense or not and should rather be evaluated on a case to case basis. The point we’d like to make is another:

In the beginning one might have thought it would be enough for those brands to use their already existing brand awareness to drive downloads of the app. This appears to have been the wrong strategy. Those applications that have been successful on the App Store so far, have all been really thought through and a lot of care was put into creating viable mobile products. Additionally, while they all may be useful in a different context, they all at least provide some kind of utility. This is also why several industry experts claim that branded apps are in fact no marketing at all. A few apps have even proven to be a very successful direct distribution channel, like the Pizza Hut app, which just recently exceeded 1 million in sales, generated directly through the app.

The most recent announcement of VW’s iPhone app exceeding 2 million app downloads is impressive, but in some ways not unexpected. Notice the time and effort that was put in thinking through the app and mobile apps as a marketing channel (quote from MobileMarketer):

“Volkswagen has done a lot of in-depth research, especially surrounding the GTI target consumer, and have found that in many cases, he is a tech-savvy individual, who enjoys social networking, plays games and spends time on mobile devices and in most cases, that device is an iPhone”

Additionally, the product provides a utility – it’s a fun game, though its clearly thought of as a marketing tool, as verified by Charlie Taylor, general manager of digital marketing at Volkswagen of America saying “the iPhone platform reaches our target customer’s sweet spot and allows us to make an impact in a way that a 30-second spot never could”.

So bottom line in our opinion is that brand and attention is helpful, but your app still needs to be a product with a definite target group and utility. And getting there demands effort. Common sense, right?